The third Meeting of States Parties (MSP) to the Treaty on the Prohibition of NuclearWeapons gets underway at the United Nations in New York on 3rd March 2025. Civil society organisations will also participate in events during Nuclear Ban Week, including the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), of which Irish CND is a member.
Photo: ICAN |
Nuclear-armed states remain engaged in deadly conflicts in
Ukraine and in the Middle East. Rhetoric around the possible use of nuclear
weapons in these conflicts has been deeply regrettable, and risks lowering the
bar to a dangerous level in discourse on the acceptability of using so-called
tactical nuclear weapons, many of which are far more powerful than the bombs
which annihilated Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The weaponisation of nuclear facilities
likewise casts a frightening shadow of potential destruction.
Nuclear-armed states are pouring vast sums of money into modernising and expanding their deadly arsenals. The United States, in contravention of its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), continues to station nuclear warheads in Europe. Russia has recently followed suit by moving nuclear arms to neighbouring Belarus. Preparations are reportedly underway for the return of American nuclear weapons to the UK.
In January 2025, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved the
Doomsday Clock to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest point to symbolic doom it
has ever represented. Their in-depth analysis of the nuclear threat stated: “Longstanding
concerns about nuclear weapons—involving the modernization and expansion of
arsenals in all nuclear weapons countries, the build-up of new capabilities,
the risks of inadvertent or deliberate nuclear use, the loss of arms control
agreements, and the possibility of nuclear proliferation to new
countries—continued or were amplified in 2024.” The increasing threats from
climate change, biological risks and disruptive technologies all likewise fed
into the Bulletin’s negative appraisal.
Even in this bleak scenario, there is hope.
The TPNW explicitly outlaws nuclear weapons, and has now
been signed or ratified by almost half the UN membership. The Treaty sets out a
clear framework on advancing nuclear disarmament as required by Article 6 of the
NPT, and contains vital provisions for victim assistance and environmental
remediation, recognising the disproportionate harm caused by nuclear weapons and
related activities on women and girls, and on indigenous peoples.
Work on progressing these aspects of the Treaty, as well as
on the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons, the compatibility of the
Treaty with the NPT (an area headed up by Ireland), and the fallacy of nuclear deterrence will be among the themes discussed during the meeting.
Recent research by ICAN and PAX has shown that the
stigmatisation of nuclear weapons since the entry into force of the TPNW in
2021 has prompted a marked drop-off in financial institutions investing in companies
directly involved in the nuclear weapons industry, with a 23% reduction over less
than four years. Both AIB and Bank of Ireland are listed among more than 100
institutions whose investment policies now explicitly exclude nuclear weapons
companies. The exclusion of nuclear weapons in their current investment
policies reflects the impact of Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Act (2019),
which gave effect to the provisions of the TPNW in Irish law.
A proposal to establish an expert panel to examine the
potential effects of nuclear war, put forward by Ireland and New Zealand, was overwhelmingly
approved by the UN General Assembly in 2024. Work on this expert report is
expected to get underway this year, with the report due in 2027. This will be
the first report of its kind for several decades, and should serve as a timely
reminder of inevitable annihilation that would be intrinsic to nuclear war.
Several times since returning to power in the United States,
President Donald Trump has outlined his intention to engage in nuclear
disarmament negotiations with Russia and China “in a very big way.” Referring
to the costs of the nuclear weapons programme, he spoke of how this represents “spending
a lot of money that we could be spending on things that are actually hopefully
much more productive.” Considering the possibility that nuclear weapons might
ever be used, he concluded his comments with “That’s going to be a very sad
day. That’s going to be probably oblivion.”
Campaigners and non-nuclear states having been saying this
clearly for decades, so it is encouraging to hear the leader of the country
with one of the world’s largest caches of nuclear arms speak in such terms. We
hope that his counterparts in Russia and China – and in the other nuclear-armed
states – will join him and will match words with actions.
If President Trump is indeed serious about nuclear
disarmament, then there is already a clear pathway to that goal, through engaging
with the TPNW processes and verifiably putting nuclear weapons out of
existence. The USA spent $51.5 billion dollars on nuclear weapons in 2023, over
half of the total outlay among nine nuclear-armed states of more than $91billion. It does not take either a genius or a president to work out that such
vast amounts of money could and should be spent on things that are, in
President Trump’s words, “much more productive”.
There is hope.